Amazingly, we're probably only a couple weeks away from the release of FCPX 10.0.6. Let's recap:

10.0.0 - 2011.06.21
10.0.1 - 2011.09.20 91 DAYS
10.0.2 - 2011.11.16 57 DAYS
10.0.3 - 2012.01.31 76 DAYS
10.0.4 - 2012.04.10 70 DAYS
10.0.5 - 2012.06.11 62 DAYS

Based on the above info, I'm estimating we'll see 10.0.6 released on Tuesday August 21st. I will hedge that statement with the caveat that since the last two updates have been mostly maintenance oriented, conceivably they could go a week early OR if it's as large an update as I'm expecting they may go a week later.

How big an update will it be? Well, let's take for granted that FCPX continues on it's current release schedule of every 70 days (average). Let's also assume that they won't release 2 feature-rich updates one after the other since they haven't so far- a feature update has always been followed by a maintenance update. If both these things are true, then 10.0.7 will be a maintenance update released sometime late October or early November. Meaning that 10.0.6 will be the LAST feature update for FCPX this year.

So that means we could conceivably see everything on the list on Apple's website in the next update:

Multichannel Audio Editing Tools
Dual Viewers
MXF Plug-in Support
RED camera support

AND from Larry Jordan's blog about his meeting with Apple at the start of NAB he says Apple made clear, "these were the four features they were announcing, these four would not be the only features released".

So there could conceivably be more to come in 10.0.6 as well.

For a list of great stuff that could find it's way back to FCPX, the best consolidated list is still Richard Taylor's "Top 80 Requests for Final Cut Pro X"

fcpx.tv/top.html

Alex Gollner (alex4d.wordpress.com) has been doing some great work this year ferreting out some amazing features that may be coming to FCPX in the future, especially around collaborative editing. But I'd be warn against counting on any of those next-gen features to show up before a 10.1 type update, which is looking more and more likely from my perspective to come around NAB 2013.

What are my big personal wants? iChat theatre. Airplay support. Copy/Paste keyframes.

Disproportionate Pictures wrote:
Alex's post is very interesting, but I have a question for any of the nerds out there... I've been told that FCPX events and projects, (as well as iMovie,iPhoto,iTunes etc) are all MySQL based databases, which are not really designed to be be multi-user. Anyone know if this is correct and, if so, how might Apple solve this?

I really can't see a pattern from the release dates but it will be cool to get a full update soon.

Who ever told you that BS about MySQL has no clue what they're talking about. Final Cut Pro X is running on the old Final Cut Server database engine, which is PostgreSQL, from when it was originally ArtBox.

"Postqre: The world's most advanced Open Source database."
Pronounced "Post-Gres-Que-El".

OS X is a UNIX system and using MS MySQL would simply be flat out stupid.

In fact, here's a quote from the Wiki for you.
"Mac OS X, starting with Lion, has PostgreSQL server as its standard default database in the server edition, and PostgreSQL client tools in the desktop edition."
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PostgreSQL

As for updates, don't expect a "major" update with everything giving us a completed product. That belies the App Store model. They can continue releasing incremental updates ever 3 or so months non-stop. They put a 10 year development plan in place, and have on reason to make any "10.1" anything more or less major than 10.0.9 or 10.1.1. It'll grow at a steady pace, LOTS of stuff to come over time. No other NLE is able to grow so fast for no extra update costs. That's just how the App Store was made to work.

I'm gonna make a drink, sit back and just enjoy the ride, watch the FCPX universe evolve and expand. There's some really nice stuff coming, from what I understand.

Scrubelicious wrote:
There's very little to my predictions other than following the pattern of what has come before and estimating release dates based on an average cycle.

10.0.0 - 2011.06.21
10.0.1 - 2011.09.20 91 DAYS - FEATURE
10.0.2 - 2011.11.16 57 DAYS - MAINTENANCE
10.0.3 - 2012.01.31 76 DAYS - FEATURE
10.0.4 - 2012.04.10 70 DAYS - MAINTENANCE
10.0.5 - 2012.06.11 62 DAYS - MAINTENANCE (Retina Update)

Avg days between update - 71. Apple has also almost exclusively released these updates on a Tuesday. So I just pick the nearest Tuesday 71 days out from June 11th.

If we project this into the future, we'll have:

10.0.6 - late August - FEATURE
10.0.7 - Oct/Nov - MAINTENANCE
10.0.8 - January - FEATURE
10.0.9 - March - MAINTENANCE

10.1 - Preview in March at NAB with release roughly June.

BenB wrote:
Well, that answers my question.

BenB wrote:
The only way that works Ben, is if Apple never intends to charge for another update again; that your $299 buys you lifetime membership to FCPX upgrades.

For the past year, the releases have been centred around reintegrating, and in some cases reconceptualizing, legacy FCP features, so it's been no surprise to me that these haven't been paid upgrades. But if Apple ever wants to re-monetize the FCPX user base, just like legacy, they're going to need to present a set of new features/functionality which is compelling enough to get users to upgrade (though upgrades don't existing currently in the appStore) OR spend another whole $299.

I wonder if we'll start to see in-app purchases as upgrades? It would seem to me that this would be the way Apple continues to monazite additional features. One big advantage I see is that if I don't need a particular feature I don't need to purchase it, but I also benefit from bug fixes and optimizations further down the line.

*Ha, like I wouldn't be tempted to get every upgrade any way

I think this idea has been floated around before, though I think it was positioned as an FCPX "appStore" for plugins, rather than FCPX functionality.

It's an interesting idea. Some functionality is critical to certain workflows, but never needed in others.

I would be surprised to see anything soon as Apple have probably all hands on deck getting iOS 6 ready for launch.

I also got the feeling that the LAFCPUG event was them book ending the first major phase of FCP X's development.

Hope I'm wrong.

Seanus wrote:
The FCP dev team only works on FCP, they don't work on iOS. That's not how things go with software development. Big myth.

"Bookend"? I'm not sure what that means.

Really? I thought the guys that did FCP X also do iMovie for ios?
Oh well glad they are in a silo then.

Bookend means to finalize. I got the feeling that Apple are pretty happy with where FCP X is right now.
I know there's more to come but they sounded like things would take quite a while like audio mixing. So I'm not holding my breath.

I'll take the cold logic of my numerology. If you count on Apple to follow its existing patterns, you'll be more right than wrong most of the time.

They could pivot at some point in the future and set a new pattern, but so far this one has been pretty easy to predict. And I've been within a week of being right about the release dates for every one since 10.0.3.

Of course effects makers would love an in-app version of a store so people could instantly download templates, titles, effects, tutorials, colour grades, type effects, audio effect bundles, stock video, sound effects...



Fun fact, in the debug mode for Final Cut Pro X, there's an interesting menu command:



Sadly I don't know how to activate the mode where this command is visible or active. It is hidden in 'Final Cut Pro.app / Resources / Contents / en.lproj / MainMenu.nib'

It might be a preview of Apple letting third-parties help with supporting complex professional installations...

...and IBC 2012, is on the weekend before the rumoured launch of the new iPhone and possibly iPad.

That means that if Apple does add even more professional features, Final Cut Pro X would be the talk of the show

No reason to think Apple is going to back off on FCP X. Everyone I've spoken to at/with Apple says that's simply not the case. It's going to be growing non-stop for a long time. We will see what the rest of the year brings us.

Again, this is all speculation, no one really knows what's going on or what's going to happen. Speculation based on gut feelings.

I'm gonna make a drink, sit back and just enjoy the ride, watch the FCPX universe evolve and expand. There's some really nice stuff coming, from what I understand.

I second this.

Seanus,
They are only 3 to 4 minor features away from being able to replace FCP7 in almost every workflow......

I am quite sure from my few talks with Apple, they are not happy with the feature set yet and even less with FCPX´s perception in the industry.
But of course they can only blame their weird launch of FCPX and the resulting chaos after that.

I stand by my research.

There is a logic to the updates thus far, and definitely a regular schedule. The curveball so far this year was 10.0.5- the Retina update was something no one predicted.

That said, in Larry's NAB blog post, he was told by Apple,

The fact that 10.0.4 and 10.0.5 were both maintenance updates bears out Apple's statement. As well, it's clear now why the features they pre-announced at NAB were simply planned for "2012". But I'm going to hang whatever reputation I have on past action, and say that after 2 maintenance updates, a feature-rich update next followed by another maintenance update in the Fall is the most likely thing to expect for the rest of 2012.

If they push out another maintenance update with 10.0.6, OR if they push out 2 feature updates one after another this year, I'll have to reevaluate what I expect. And I'm happy to do that.

Until then, I'm sticking to my guns, and you guys have got it here in black and white if I'm wrong.

It's a fun game, regardless...

As a point of personal preference, I'm really hoping that a bunch of new functionality does come with the new release. I'm starting to be pulled into conversation with some of my clients about which way to turn after they leave FCP7. They may not make that call for another 6-12 months, but all the restored functionality will certainly make my case for FCPX better, especially in cases where there are other freelancers who are pushing them towards PremierPro.

I would say that FCPX's metadata-based Event structure demoes VERY well for clients. Masses of footage are easily organized, and that you can find the footage you're looking for with just a couple of search strings impresses. That said, I still with you could search keywords as a text string...

This was way easier when FCP was only updated every 2 years at NAB.

Although it may not seem like it for us waiting for updates, as the timeline on this post shows the Final Cut team is cranking out updates at an insane pace. And not just fixes but pretty fantastic features. I for one an still very impressed with the efficiency of broadcast out with my MX02, and I'm still finding new uses for Multicam.

Hats off to them.

(Oh and please put in an audio mixing bus... like yesterday)