I got drawn into a conversation with someone on CreativeCow about the the update, and someone casually asked, "So, is it going to be 10.0.5 or 10.1?"
I've seen this idea thrown around before, and I've sort of offhandedly dismissed it. I don't think that anyone would argue that FCPX still has a lot of areas to improve before we could put it up against any other NLE on any kind of job. So it always seemed to me elementary that we'll see continuous updates from 10.0.5 all the way up to 10.0.9 throughout the next year- potentially leading up to a 10.1 preview at NAB 2013, or a release somewhere around it's 2yr anniversary.
I don't know what got me thinking about it differently, but I tried to put myself in that mindset and I might have come up with a theory that could potentially point to a 10.1 instead of 10.0.5 release we expect in the next couple weeks.
This is all pure Kremlinology, and I wouldn't put money on it (I think 10.1 next year is much more likely)- but here goes.
When Apple released FCPX 10.0.2 they made a point of saying (and listing in the release notes) that FCPX 10.0.3 would include BROADCAST MONITORING and MULTICAM. At NAB this year, in the press previews, Apple only listed the upcoming features as being "2012". Not "10.0.5". It continues to strike me as odd that Apple would talk about features that wouldn't be in the "next" update, and since the updates are coming about every 3 months, several updates could pass without a whiff of some of the ones they listed. That's weird.
So here's an idea- what if they're just saying "2012" because the updates aren't coming in 10.0.5, and they aren't coming in the "next update" because those updates are coming in 10.1? Whether it's a paid update or not, 10.1 could feature a lot more new and exciting stuff than the features previewed at NAB. Those are just the ones they chose to announce. Like the features Apple previews at iOS updates vs the ones they announce when the new iPhone gets released.
Also, I don't think we should completely discount the fact that the next release is likely to coincide with the 1yr anniversary of 10.0.0. It's not clear if FCPX is going to be updated annually, or (more like legacy FCP) every 2-3 years.
Finally, if Apple has any intention of allowing paid upgrades for software in the Mac appStore, then it's going to be on the rollout of something like FCPX that they'll do it with. And with the WWDC developer conference launching next week- if they announce a paid upgrade option for MAS software, it might just be a sign of a FCPX 10.1 release.
It's all circumstantial and probably amounts to nothing, but I thought I'd throw it out there.
Regardless, we shouldn't have long to wait to find out.