I love discussing this topic, I've done it a lot over the past year and this is what I think.
First, full disclosure, I work for Apple, but just in retail and I am not an obsessive fanboy, when I quit my job there, I will probably never clap my hands together again.
I decided to start learning about editing in May of 2011 (interesting timing), I have never used FCP 7 and I am very happy about that because if I had spent time learning it I would be annoyed to have to learn something new. I've spent the past year editing very few projects on FCPX, but I already know enough to get the job done.
Most of what I've done this past year is study editing theory and techniques, because really, it's not about the software, it's about the cut you make. 2001 A Space Odyssey was edited by physically cutting film and putting it back together, could you have done a better job on any of todays software? Our technology spoils us and seems to distract from what's most important, the cut.
One of the most important things I learned about editing is that an editor needs be be open minded and explore all the options with the footage that is presented to them. Because of the way they work, editors have to be able to try new things, but it seems that when it comes to technology they don't have the same mind set. I understand upgrading and changing workflow is expensive, but a lot of the negative feedback I've heard about FCPX comes from people who really haven't even given it a chance and don't want to, they are just closed minded about the change.
Now to really understand the future of FCPX you have to understand two other things, the way Apple works and the future of content consumption.
First we'll start with Apple. They have $110 billion dollars in the bank, they can do anything they want. One of the things they do is look forward and they have no problem abandoning anything that doesn't work with their future plans. They refuse to hold on to dated beliefs and business models. Even if they have to alienate some customers they will do it because in the long run everything will work out fine. In general, people hate change of any kind and apple knows this. The only way they can get people to change is to force them to change, and with FCPX they are forcing people to use it or go to something else. Do you think they care if you use other editing software? No, they don't, they have $110 billion in the bank. And on that note, does AVID or Adobe have that kind of money? $110 billion dollars is a lot of money, and that means they have a lot of money to continue to invest in FCPX to make it the best editing program ever made. And when I say best editing program ever made, it will be the best in the eyes of Apple.
FCP 7 is a very dated program and it was never an Apple program to begin with, they bought it from Macromedia. It's a 32bit program and it never really caught on in the movie industry anyway.
FCPX is an Apple product designed from the ground up to run on Apple hardware. It's 64bit and it's extremely powerful, the autosave function makes editing stress free. I don't know if it will ever gain any market share in the movie industry, but that's what AVID is for, if you're going to become a film editor AVID is the way to go. And that brings me to my next point.
The future of content consumption. The iPad (and other tablets) are going to be one of the main ways people consume video content, possibly through Apple TV too. Look at what Apple did with the music industry, they took away power from the major companies and gave it to the musicians. It's very easy to record an album and digitally distribute it and many bands (if they work hard enough) can make a living without a label because of digital technology. The video industry is going through the same change now. The television industry is about to be hit hard by YouTube and Netfilx. All the television industry has right now is original content, but YouTube and Netflix are changing that. In five to ten years, most of the content we create will go to places like YouTube and Netflix. There will be no need to green light a show, series or idea, put it on YouTube and if it makes money everyone wins, if not then YouTube loses nothing, there are no time slots. You don't need a lot of money to make something successful, look at Epic Meal Time, how much production value does that have? But it's still not clear how much money can be made from YouTube.
I believe that FCPX has a very strong future because of where content is headed. The $300 price point is also going to help because Adobe products are too expensive for most students and licensing is a pain in the ass. Anytime I get a new computer, I just open the Mac App Store and redownload FCPX and it's on my computer. All my plugin installers are on dropbox so I can easily install them on a second computer.
I never used FCP7 so I can't say anything about the plugins, but it seems to me that there are a lot of companies that are making some great plugins for FCPX and I see the potential for it to really add a lot to FCPX. Previewing plugins in FCPX is so easy and fast, could you select a clip in FCP7 and then mouse over all the different plugins and instantly see how it looks?
But honestly, in the end it's all about the cut. If great movies we made by taping film together then what's the problem with FCPX? Use whatever software you want, but don't be close minded about new things. And really, if you don't know why you're making a cut or understand what you're doing the software won't matter.
If any of you have read "In the blink of an eye" then you know that when all of the cuts were averaged out, Walter Murch made an average of one-and-a-half cuts per day on Apocalypse Now. He spent most of his time thinking about the cuts and all his different options.
The software doesn't matter, your storytelling skills do.